When it comes to bitcoin (BTC)‘s nearest future, similar to what was seen since March 2020, BTC whales accumulation will drive further appreciation in price in November, Kraken Intelligence, the exchange’s team of in-house researchers, estimated. Therefore, be prepared for even higher volatility this month.
The researchers compared the number of coins held in wallets with more than BTC 100 (USD 1.54m) and those with less, and found that the former – the so-called ‘whales’ – “took advantage” of the October rally seen by the world’s number one crypto.
Bitcoin surged to USD 13,800 by the end of the past month, and this shows that, although BTC 70,000 left the ‘whale’ wallets during October, the demand from wallets with less than BTC 100 “more than offset ‘whale’ profit-taking,” Kraken said. They added that,
“Should demand hold strong as bitcoin matures into its current [USD] 13,000 – [USD] 15,000 range, existing and newfound demand could accelerate bitcoin’s appreciation into year-end if FOMO [fear of missing out] resurfaces and bitcoin begins climbing to a new all-time high.”
Meanwhile, though it had set an intra-month low of USD 10,384 at the month’s start, bitcoin jumped more than 28% to a 33-month high of USD 14,080 at the month’s end (before dropping to USD 13,809). The high return made this the 8th consecutive year in which October outperformed September, known as bitcoin’s worst-performing month.
Nonetheless, the researchers discovered that last month was the second least volatile October on record – the volatility “fell short of the historical average” being 6 percentage points greater than September.
On the other hand, the month we’re currently in is the third-best yielding month when looking at the median performance (+14%) and the best performing month on average, Kraken Intelligence said. But they added that “excluding Nov. 2013’s anomalous +451% return, Nov’s pro forma average return of +5% is the third weakest month of the year.” Also, November’s average annualized volatility of 85% is the fourth most volatile month on record, behind April at 86%.
Therefore, given these two factors above, price and volatility can both be expected to climb in November. Kraken researchers said that,
“With bitcoin rallying to a 33-month high, setting a higher high after 3 years of downtrending price action, and tending to go parabolic after breaking out of a macro downtrend, an ascent to [USD] 20,000 appears likely in the months ahead.”
(2/3) 2. Forced digitalization (and CBDC impetus) as a result of the worsening worldwide Covid situation 3. Increas… https://t.co/g29CifWgcP
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At 9:50 UTC, bitcoin is trading at nearly USD 15,400. It’s unchanged in the last 24 hours and it appreciated 13% in a week, as well as almost 36% in a month.
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